Thursday, September 11, 2014

Search Me!




I have a brain teaser for you. Do you remember the game show Let's Make a Deal, hosted by Monte Hall? In the UK it had another name. Monty Python, I think.




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Anyway, the point of the show was for Monte to get contestants like Miss A. Raggedy, shown to the right, to reach into Monte's pants pocket. If she fished around in there long enough, she'd earn $100.


I think that's how it worked. My memory is kinda hazy about that show because it came on after school, which was prime ganja time. Let's Make a Deal aired during that sweet one and a half hour period after school but before the parents came home from work. Every day at 3:30 to 5:00, we watched tv and got high, which really helped us to unwind and forget the day's lessons.


Anyway, at the end of each episode of Let's Make a Deal, the contestant that played the best game of pocket pool was allowed to choose one of three doors. Behind one door was a good prize, like a large sack of columbian gold. Behind the other two doors was something unpleasant, like a narcotics officer. My memory is also a little foggy about the prizes. I may be getting things mixed up with a Cheech and Chong skit.


So, once the contestant chose a door, Monte the Perv would show what was behind one of the two doors that the contestant did NOT choose. That door would reveal one of the two non-prizes behind it. That left only two doors, one of which had the prize. Then Monte Pockets would really mess with the contestant's mind by giving him or her the option of switching doors.


Most of us had happily forgotten this program until a few years back when some genius named Marilyn Vos Savant (I'm not kidding - that's really her name), claimed that the best choice, if the show were ever to be revived, would be to ALWAYS switch doors. She claimed that if you stuck with the original door, there was a 2/3 chance that you would be frog-marched out in cuffs, but if you switched doors, there was a 2/3 chance that you would toke up with Monte after the show.


Many intelligent, well-educated people (not my school friends) have disagreed with this claim - college math professors, even. What do you think? Was Little Miss MENSA correct? Should Miss Ragedy switch doors and thereby stand a better chance at winning? Or would she do better to stay with the original door? Does it even matter whether she switches or not?


Okay, there are plenty of websites and wikipedia-type write-ups on this problem (it's known as the Monte Hall problem. Personally, I think that term should be reserved for dirty old men who tell unsuspecting young girls that there is $100 in their pants that they can have if they can find it).


Go ahead and look at those websites. Read up if you want. I actually do think that the extremely above-average kind of mind that tends to peruse this blog can figure it out. BUT, can you explain it in the short amount of space provided by the blogger comment box?

26 comments:

Joni said...

I don't know about the math of it, but I dig the jacket ol' Monty is sportin'!

LOL

~d said...

Fished around long enough she got $100?! Hmmm. Wonder if he had holes in his pockets!
click, if you dare!

~d said...

I really entertain myself, you know!

Bugwit said...

Joni: That IS pretty sweet, isn't it? Plaid is the new black.

Tildy: That is some weird shit. They really shouldn't allow shroom heads to make children's televsion programs.

MarmiteToasty said...

ok Bugs :) Monty Python is SOOOOooo not that programme Lets Make a Deal.... shame on you for thinking so LOL ;) (note the lol and the smile)......

Happy Thursday to you...xxxx

jali said...

Your version of the show sounds a lot better than what I remember. I'd love to fish for cash.

As far as the odds - I WILL NOT do math today so...who the hell knows?

Bugwit said...

Happy Thursday, Marms!
It wasn't Monty Python? I'm sure it was something like that. Trouser Snakes, maybe.

jali:
SO disappointed in you for not doing the math. But on the other hand, I have a plaid suit at home...

Chicky Pea said...

Bug - you lost me with that extremely above-average kind of mind thing...... :-)

Bugwit said...

CP: Would you agree to 'slightly above average?'

Anonymous said...

After I calculate the chances of Monty's need to smoke a cigarette after Miss A. Raggedy and her friends got done with him, I will get back to you on the switching doors thingy.

;)

Bugwit said...

Elizabeth: I think that comes out to about 100%! ;-)

Anonymous said...

...My calculations are the same!!...ok, about the door thingy...lemme get back to you on that one.

Pink said...

HMM...I'm heavily jetlagged here in Chelsea, NYC...but it seems to me that once they've opened the door and shown a losing option, that leaves a 50/50 chance that you've chosen the right door in the first place. I think it doesn't matter if you switch or not.

But then, the world feels a bit like its spinning and I need to go to bed.
xx
pinks

Bugwit said...

'lizbeth:
Lookiing forward to it.

Pinks: Welcome back to the God Blessed US of A! Hope your flight was pleasant.

The 50/50 chance was my first thought, too. That seems intuitive.

But it isn't correct, sorry. :-(

Spilling Ink said...

I am so TV illiterate :-(

Bugwit said...

Well, Lynn, 'TV literate' is an oxymoron. Those that watch too much tv, like myself, should be the ones label 'TV illiterate.'

:-)

jungle jane said...

Well I've done the maths have read the Wikipedia solution, all of which involve goats, doors and the probability of winning if the host knows in advance which door hides the prize.

It is none of the above. It's all about God. God controls the goats, the doors and Monty's pants. If you eat your carrots and say your prayers, you win. If you smoke too much pot you lose AND go to hell.

Simple really, innit?

~d said...

Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go I wanna be sedated
Nothin' to do no where to go-o-oh I wanna be sedated
Just put me in a wheelchair get me to the show
Hurry hurry hurry before I go loco
I can't control my fingers I can't control my toes
Oh no oh oh oh oh

Pink said...

Intuitive inshmuitive. What crap.

I like the answer that God controls the goats. I'm down with that one.

And, I know that one tildy!

Joey Ramone and his possie is from these old stompin' grounds of mine.

Me - I'm a teenage lobotomy.

Therefore, I give up on the maths and will just offer the answer ala douglas adams - to life, the universe and everything:

42

write it down. You might need it some day.
xx
pinks

Bugwit said...

JJ:

I get it! That explains why the true believers, the feel-it-live-it-can't-get-them-out-of-the-church devout old ladies are allways stinking rich but the cynical in-it-for-the-money bastards are always poor.

The universe DOES make sense!

Going home with a goat wouldn't be so bad, would it?

Tildy:
Well the kids are all hopped up and ready to go
They're ready to go now
They've got their surfboards
And they're going to the discotheque a go go
But she just couldn't stay
She had to break away

Sheena is a punk rocker

Tanai:

Intuitive inshmuitive? Did you just chuck one of your core principles? Uh oh.

...........................

Okay, well we've at least have a couple poeple who's TV illiterate brains have gotten off their asses and thought about 'ol Monte Haul.

But now it seems played out, so I'll post the correct answer WITH an explanation so simple, even I will unsderstand it.

~d said...

boohbah

Pink said...

I told you already: 42!

Geez. write it down!
xx
pinks

missy said...

Monty Python is a UK sketch show with John Cleese, Terry Gilliam, Michael Palin, etc. Brilliant show.

Have not heard of Let's Make a Deal but I have seen The Price is Right, Wheel of Fortune, Name That Tune, Family Feud... can't remember the other US shows I have seen as a kid.

Bugwit said...

(((Missy))) (I owed you a hug from last time):

So there's no one named Monty on that show? No...we can't be talking about the same show.

I have noticed when I go to London that some our worst shows are playing there. It makes me a little ashamed.

But on the other hand, you've get Scrub and My Name is Earl, so I can feel proud of that.

You missed Graham Chapman, Eric Idle and Terry Jones. ;-)

Pink said...

How dare you? How dare you call Malcolm in the middle one of our worst shows?

Ok..post the answer already.

I'm waiting here...with baited breath.

Oh wait, no. That's ONION breath.

Well, post anyway or I'll start breathing down your neck.
xx
pinks

Bugwit said...

You got it, toots!